Kyle Trask +250 To Win The Heisman Is The Best Bet On The Board
Remember Joe Burrow's season last year? It felt like it was never going to be duplicated.
60 TDs, 5671 yards, 76.3% completion
15-0
SEC & National Championship
But....what if I told you....that another SEC QB is doing that right now. Take a look at this tweet from Bill Connelly:
The crazy thing about this is that Joe Burow's first 6 games featured matchups against Utah State, Northwestern State, Georgia Southern, and Vanderbilt! Trask has gone up against the 26th toughest schedule so far this season and still has thrown for the most TDs in the nation. What Trask has done is truly phenomenal.
Will Trask eclipse Burrow? No, he is only going to end up playing 13 games at the most. Burrow played 15 thanks to it not being a non-COVID season. All this being said, Trask is currently tied for second in Heisman odds at the Barstool Sportsbook.
At +250, his implied odds of winning the Heisman are around 28%. As I had already noted, Trask leads the nation in TDs. He ranks 4th in yards per game and 9th in yards. Here is his upcoming schedule: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU. Those teams rank 103rd, 35th, 32nd, and 69th in defense according to SP+. I don't think it's crazy to suggest he will throw for 18 or so TDs in these next 4 games and win them all. That will place Trask in the SEC Championship against Alabama with 45 or so TDs with the firm chance to secure the Heisman.
Who else could win it? Trevor (+200) will have 4 games left and has just 17 TDs and is averaging 60 yards less per game thanks to missing 2 games due to COVID. Justin Fields (+250) may only have 8 total games to play with and will potentially lead to him losing votes from a season-long award. Fields would have had a serious shot if he had the chance to play a full schedule, but that won't happen thanks to the Big Ten. His true competition in my opinion is Mac Jones (+300), but Jones is slightly behind Trask in term of statistics. Jones has thrown just 16 TDs but has averaged the same amount of yards per game as Trask. His upcoming schedule includes games against Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas. Three pretty solid defenses. Funny enough what will derail Jones the most is his own teammate. Najee Harris has been taking away the TDs from Mac Jones all season and may also split the votes for an Alabama player from Heisman voters.
It's completely possible that Mac Jones dominates the rest of his schedule and then lights up Florida's defense to secure the Heisman, however, the better bet is on Trask….even if/when Florida gets taken down by Alabama in the SEC Championship. +250 is the play and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the Heisman leader after putting up a disgusting stat line on Vandy this weekend.